In recent years, climate change has become the most hotly debated environmental issue in the international arena. This is due to the potentially devastating consequences of global warming and fears of the economic implications associated with facing up to the problem.
With an increase in global temperature above 2°C from pre-industrial levels (1880) corresponding to 450ppm of GHGs, tipping points signifying dangerous human interference in ecological function are expected to be reached. Climate models assert that limiting warming (by year 2100) below 2°C would still lead to ‘considerable’ effects particularly for low-lying island states and coral reef systems, but avoid catastrophic shifts in climate and ecological function. However, with current levels measured at 1.4°C and GHGs already reaching 400ppm in September 2016, the present emission mitigation strategies do not appear consistent with protocol objectives.
For mountainous and tundra regions such as the Tibetan Plateau, this means alterations in the water cycle, in food production systems and the unique diversity of flora and fauna. From glacial melt waters resulting in erosion and landslides, the exponential increase in the heating of the earth exposed from glacial retreat, shifting of crop growing seasons and increases in extreme weather events; Tibetans are greatly at risk of environmental calamities that will likely limit their ability to secure food and livelihood resources in the future.
While the scientific community and governments around the world agree that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by human activities are contributing to global warming, there are still several impediments to the development of solid, legally-binding agreements to mitigate or reduce the production of harmful emissions. Overall, these strangleholds to speedy progress in international negotiations are due to nations unable to agree on a number of elements such as, how to distribute financial responsibilities, how to adequately support developing countries, or the best ways to reduce emissions; whether this be through emissions trading, nationally determined goals or legally binding national reduction targets.
There is a heavier burden placed on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. This is recognition of the fact that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity. Consequently, developed countries have agreed to quantified emission limitations and reduction objectives and developing nations will develop nationally appropriate mitigation action founded upon sustainable development through technological and financial support.
To discuss and progress with global decision making, world leaders have been meeting at Conference of the Parties (COP) since 1992 to formulate climate change strategies. The most significant international agreements, or protocols, to date have been:
The establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) treaty during the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 which was formed to “stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system”. Although no specific binding limits of emissions or enforcement agreements were set, this treaty eventually led to the Kyoto Protocol which is the first binding international agreement that set mitigation targets for developed countries between years 2008-2012. So while the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to reduce their GHG emissions, the Protocol committed them to do so. A second period is running from 2013-2020 and is based on the 2012 Doha Agreement of the Protocol. A number of countries have not ratified the second installment of the protocol, including Japan, Russia, New Zealand, Canada, and the USA, who also did not sign the first protocol.
More recently, during the COP21 in Paris 2015 it was acknowledged that efforts to keep global warming under 2°C based on pre-industrial levels were inadequate. The Paris Agreement thus defines the goal to hold temperatures below 2°C through the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that allow countries to develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation plans.
The most recent Conference of the Parties (COP22) held in Marrakech, Morocco 2016 was intended to put the plans from Paris into action. The goals set out in the Agreement are to use these NDCs to aim for a net-zero emission target by 2050. However, it will take until 2018 to finalise the specificities of the Paris Agreement before it can be fully implemented.
Uncertainty is posed with the second biggest carbon emitting country, the USA, and whether it will maintain its commitment to the Agreement. Current rhetoric claims of plans to remove clean energy commitments and revive fossil industries, which will surely jeopardize its plan to reduce 80% of its emissions by 2050.
Despite this, the most recent COPs have witnessed an increase in political momentum with the movement towards greater transparency and accountability embedded in the protocols which should enhance ambition. Only time will tell what happens next on this very important issue.